The Achaeans' Curse

When even the most strident supporters of the Bush administration decide it is time to cut back on oil consumption, then change truly is in the wind.

In January, the most ardent Bush supporter of all—President Bush himself—announced a plan to cut U.S. petroleum consumption by one fifth in the coming decade. As the case may be, the U.S. is one of the last industrialized western nations to jump on the bandwagon of change.

The reason for this change, according to The Economist, is “the belated realisation the world over that fossil fuels overheat the planet, are controlled by dodgy regimes and cost too much.”

One of the main sources for petrol reduction will come through the use of hybrid vehicles and the increased use of ethanol. For the transition to the latter, the U.S. is particularly ill-equipped.

Whereas the warmer climates of the world are effectively producing ethanol derived from sugar cane, the U.S. stubbornly persists in its case to produce ethanol derived from corn.

As stated in The Economist: “The United States insists on producing most of its ethanol from home-grown maize, which is more expensive than Brazil’s (sugar) cane-based version and burns up about seven times more fossil fuel per unit of energy produced.”



Government subsidies and inefficient markets aside, it appears the worldwide future of ethanol lies in the hands of the sugar cane producers. Sugar cane ethanol is cheaper, cleaner, and more efficient. It is already taking hold in the world market, as Brazil exported approximately $8 billion in sugar cane ethanol in 2006—a mere 25% of the country’s current production capacity.

Factor in the expectation that ethanol production will multiply 25-fold within the next fifteen years, and the case is clear: sugar cane ethanol will soon be a major player in the world’s energy markets.

But one of the main reasons for the United States’ transition from fossil fuels to ethanol is to avoid dependence on those “dodgy” regimes that control the oil fields. So before we jump into bed with ethanol, we urge our readers to examine this list of the top sugar-cane-producing regions in the world today:

1) Brazil
2) European Union
3) India
4) China
5) United States

Rounding out the top 8 are Mexico, Colombia and Pakistan.

Clearly, as Uncle Gore taught us, clean fuels are the way of the future. But is the U.S. ready to move away from the Arabian Peninsula simply to become dependent on three of the largest challengers to the U.S. economy’s global preeminence? (i.e. China, India, the EU).



Brazil is far from stable, China is far from friendly, India is far from predictable, and Colombia is still reeling from its sordid past (and present). Not to mention, a recent article regarding the state of affairs in Pakistan which opened with the following: “In Pakistan, more alarmingly even than usual, the flag of jihad is fluttering and extremists are marching on the state.”

Waziristan is a border province in Pakistan and the current site of an armed conflict between Taliban forces and Uzbek-Islamic extremists. It also borders one of the top ten regions in the world for sugar cane production. And so it goes.

The transition to sugar cane ethanol may be environmentally noble, but will it be clean?


- MDSC Flynn